Alcohol: a guide for perplexed MPs
The House of Commons Library has published a good summary of the alcohol statistics. There will be few surprises there for regular readers of Straight Statistics who must be now be weary with my obsession with the habitual failure of politicians to take any notice of what these statistics actually tell them.
But I can’t resist reproducing the chart below, which traces the prevalence of binge-drinking among 18-24 year-olds since 1998. Tons of evidence there, I think you’ll agree, to justify David Cameron’s distortion of the market by setting minimum prices for alcohol.
Still, I suppose if you are going to set a target, it’s best to choose one that is well on the way to achievement already. Then you can claim credit whether your policy works or not, and nobody is any the wiser.
Cameron’ plan will, if implemented, make a bit of a hole in the Scottish Government’s intention of measuring the success of its own minimum pricing legislation by comparing it against England and Wales. If we’re both doing it, there won’t be a comparator left.
My only quibble with the HoC note is that it starts by saying “alcohol misuse is a significant and increasing problem in contemporary society”. Significant certainly but “increasing” seems to contradict much of what follows.
Bertrand Russell (not verified) wrote,
Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:00
As I said in my interview shown last night on BBC4,
"When you are studying any matter, or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts."
Eric Crampton (not verified) wrote,
Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:34
But can't you see the crisis? Only last year, men and women were binge drinking at the same rate. And now, men's rates are roughly 40% higher than women's. Surely this is compelling evidence that we need to do SOMETHING about the terrible toll of men's binge drinking.
You just have to frame things correctly.
Lyn (not verified) wrote,
Sat, 07/04/2012 - 13:44
This, like many other 'vices' are reducing quite well of their own accord; the the government steps in and Voila! - they start to rise again!
People tend to resent this kind of interference in their private lives, so the rebel that is in many comes to the fore and they increase again what they have already cut down; the re-start what they have given up; they decide not to quit after all, etc, etc.
Every time the government and the quangos they finance poke their noses in they cause the opposite effect. Brilliant! Can they really be so dumb and stupid that they haven't cottone on yet? I guess, jusding by the evidence, the answer is a resounding YES
David Mcmillan @hermitsholiday (not verified) wrote,
Thu, 03/05/2012 - 21:32
While i don't disagree with minimum price as a means of tackling alcohol abuse i feel that it will help fewer people than anticipated and that it may in fact mean that other Causes/solutions are not explored with the urgency demanded by this issue.
Anonymous (not verified) wrote,
Sat, 05/05/2012 - 07:26
Now does the author have any conflict of interest to declare, How much work from the Alcohol Industry. Notwithstanding the graph looks odd, if not downright wide of the mark, a falsie.
Mark
Nigel Hawkes (not verified) wrote,
Tue, 08/05/2012 - 07:31
I am sure that a member of staff of the House of Commons Library has no interests to declare in connection with the alcohol industry. And the graph, like it or not, is based on ONS survey data which has been discussed more than once elsewhere on this site.
Steve Rolles (not verified) wrote,
Wed, 16/05/2012 - 10:06
This graph of alcohol replated liver disease helps explain the concern from the medical and public health community. I fear by focusing on one measure of one phemomenon you are in danger of leaving yourself open to accusations of cherry picking.
http://www.graphbank.org/images/3-mr_mf_gbr_oci_35-49_08.png
nigel.hawkes wrote,
Mon, 21/05/2012 - 16:27
I've never questioned that it would be highly desirable to reduce alcohol-related liver disease. But I think the graph linked to by Steve Rolles is open to question, for the reasons I explained here: http://www.straightstatistics.org/article/drink-death-estimates-trimmed
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