Conservatives’ crime claims challenged
Mark Easton of the BBC has taken a swing at the Conservatives’ use of crime statistics to support David Cameron's claims of a “broken society”.
The claims are wrong, he says, because the figures cited in support disregard a change in the way crime was reported by the police which was introduced in 2002. So to claim that violent crime is up by 70 per cent by comparing figures from 1998-99 to those of 2008-09 is fallacious.
The British Crime Survey, where no such change was made, shows a steady decline in violent crime from a peak in 1995. And the figures quoted by the Conservatives on knife and gun crime, from other sources, are no more persuasive. Easton’s blogs, available here and here, make a very strong case.
Crime statistics are widely disbelieved, which is why the UK Statistics Authority has suggested ways of improving public confidence. The Conservatives are exploiting that lack of confidence to make claims that don’t stand up.
Anonymous (not verified) wrote,
Wed, 10/03/2010 - 23:47
instead of simply using loaded words like 'claims' about others, why dont you report the facts of what mark easton, the conservatives and the statistics authority have said [including more recently] and what you think- is this a good example of statistics being challenged & discussed, a flagrant misuse, or what? what is your campaign's view on the matter? if you are simply going to report that somebody has challenged somebody else's statistics, how does that help improve anything or achieve the aims of Straight Statistics?
Nigel Hawkes (not verified) wrote,
Sat, 13/03/2010 - 14:30
Because this was a quick blog before I had checked the facts. The next day I wrote again about the subject in more detail: this article is on the site and indeed can be reached directly from this blog. Since then I have attempted, by contacting Chris Grayling, to obtain a copy of a report from the House of Commons Library which he says justifies his claim. His office referred me to the Conservative Press Office, which has yet to return my call. The FT has reported that this document does not wholly back Mr Grayling. If I ever see it, I will report what it actually does say.
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