We're usually right, claims the ONS

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ONS has defended its estimates of GDP growth, which have been attacked by economists as excessively gloomy.

The most recent estimate, for the fourth quarter of 2009, showed growth of just 0.1 per cent, while economic modellers were expecting something closer to 0.4 per cent. Some have charged that the ONS figures invariably lag behind actual events, and exaggerate the depth of recessions.

Not so, asserted Robin Youll of the ONS yesterday at a press conference. On average, the initial figure is adjusted by only 0.05 percentage points two years later, when more data is available. And the chief economist at the ONS, Joe Grice (pictured), said that adjustments are just as likely to be down as up.
 
The Times reports that Mr Grice is frustrated by the ONS website. He admitted that he recently spent ten minutes trying to find an item of data and would have given up if he hadn’t know it was there, somewhere. Ten minutes? That's lightning fast. Perhaps he could give the rest of us some tips.

 

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