H1N1 deaths: why is England the odd one out?
The latest figures for deaths from H1N1 flu, published by the Health Protection Agency for week 48, raise an interesting question.
There have been 240 deaths from H1N1 flu in the UK, the HPA reports, breaking them down by country: 163 in England, 41 in Scotland, 23 in Wales, and 13 in Northern Ireland. (See page 6 of the HPA's Weekly National Influenza report, issued yesterday.)
While the figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are roughly proportional to population, England is wildly out of line. Death rates per million population can be calculated as: England 3.2, Scotland 8.0, Wales 7.9, and Northern Ireland 7.2.
Why has England apparently been spared? Its death rate is less than half that of the other three. There are plenty of possible explanations.
One is that not all deaths from H1N1 in England are being recorded, possibly as a result of a failure to test all those hospitalised for suspect H1N1. Another is that the other three countries are over-recording deaths from H1N1, but since their death rates are so closely aligned that seems less likely.
Maybe there is a difference in H1N1 transmission in England. Or possibly the treatment of patients once hospitalised is better in England than in the other countries – though there’s no reason to believe that. It's a pity the HPA doesn't include cumulative numbers for patients hospitalised for suspected H1N1 for England: it does for the other three countries.
The difference in death rates is so great as to need an explanation of some sort.
Professor Hale (not verified) wrote,
Tue, 01/12/2009 - 19:09
In many places in the USA the test for H1N1 is rare. Since the treatments for both kinds of flu is the same, spending money on testing for type is pointless. THe number of H1N1 deaths in the USA is therefore not a count, but a statistical extrapolation based on tha ratio of those tests that had been conducted at hospitals earlier. The stats for Whales, Scottlands and Ireland are likely in agreement because they too are statistical extracts of flu-like cases, not counts.
Another answer is that they are all just making it up.
Anonymous (not verified) wrote,
Wed, 16/12/2009 - 22:01
What I find really strange is the low death rate in Ukraine compared to how many people were hospitalized. At one point I read that England had 1000 people in the hospital with H1N1 and the death toll was around 240, but Ukraine said their death toll was only around 470 and they had 119,000 people hospitalized. It doesn't make sense that they had so many more sick people but only a few more deaths.
Their president was calling for aid from allied countries and he sounded desperate when he addressed the people of Ukraine. He said the outbreak they were having was "unprecedented" and " inconceivable in the 21st century".
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